Post by Moses on Dec 13, 2004 17:25:53 GMT -5
Update on the Palestinian Elections
Predictions about the January 9th Palestinian elections remain confused, even after the withdrawal of Marwan Barghouti as a candidate for president of the Palestinian Authority.
Even though there now seems little doubt that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) will be elected on January 9th, the real question is whether he will be completely successful in ending Palestinian violence against Israelis. And even more important is whether he will be able to persuade the Israelis to end their unceasingly violent behavior towards the Palestinian population.
Israeli commentators are being unusually circumspect in judging the situation among the various Palestinian factions, hoping of course that there really will be an opening to peace, even on a limited scale.
The Sharon government so far has made only minor concessions in facilitating a successful Palestinian election. It has agreed to release 200 Palestinian prisoners out of the 8,000 they are holding as a gesture of good will to Egypt. It has agreed to allow voter registration on the West Bank and Gaza to proceed, but registering the 200,000 Palestinians in East Jerusalem remains problematic. Israel wants to cut the Palestinian ties to East Jerusalem as much as possible. Sharon's government has announced that it will allow voting in East Jerusalem, but as in 1996, the number of voting places may be so limited that only a few thousand will be able to actually vote. The Israelis continue to re-issue resident permits in a very dilatory fashion, including those of American citizens of Palestinian birth and residence in East Jerusalem.
Despite this cloud over facilitating democracy in Palestine, the polls indicate that Mahmoud Abbas is likely to gain a clear majority.
Nonetheless, despite Marwan Barghouti's withdrawal, there will be confusion in the minds of some voters, particularly those in Gaza, who may vote for Dr. Mustafa Barghouti thinking they are voting for Marwan Barghouti. Dr. Mustafa Barghouti is much better known on the West Bank than he is in Gaza.
It should be noted that there are no important candidates in the race for president now representing those who wish to continue the intifada. But Marwan Barghouti, in withdrawing, made plain that he expected Abbas to continue the struggle.
Abbas is the candidate of choice for Israel and the United States, in expectation that he will end the violent response of Palestinians to the occupation. Only if Israel continues her violent retaliations and assassinations will Abbas face a situation where he may be unable to stop the young guerrillas who have been blooded in the most recent intifada.
The new Israeli national coalition government will also have strong contradictory impulses built into it, with Shimon Peres on one side and Ariel Sharon and the ultra-Orthodox Jewish colonists on the other. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for Sharon to step back and find other means than violent retaliation to respond to any major incidents. Abbas needs breathing room to build an effective security service. In the present atmosphere it seems almost impossible to conceive of joint Palestinian-Israeli patrols, an effective tool during the Oslo process.
Palestinian and Israeli commentators agree that Abu Mazen has so far made not a single misstep. He has even visited Kuwait, once a great supporter of the Palestinian cause, and apologized for the mistake the Palestine Liberation Organization made in 1990 by supporting Saddam Hussein.
It is interesting to compare the losses of civilians and "insurgents" in Iraq, which number some 15,000 to 20,000 in a population of 25 million. The Palestinian West Bank and Gaza population is about 1/10th of that. Palestinian families have lost the equivalent, when compared to Iraq, of 35,000 killed and some 200,000 hospitalized. More and more, the juxtaposition of Palestinian elections on January 9th and Iraqi elections on January 30th represents the most crucial test yet of the Bush doctrine of spreading democracy in the Middle East and around the world.
It is probably a safe bet that the Palestinian elections will be accompanied by much less violence than the elections in Iraq. But both elections are only the beginning of a very long and difficult phase in American relations with the Middle East.
Council for the National Interest <count@igc.org>
Predictions about the January 9th Palestinian elections remain confused, even after the withdrawal of Marwan Barghouti as a candidate for president of the Palestinian Authority.
Even though there now seems little doubt that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) will be elected on January 9th, the real question is whether he will be completely successful in ending Palestinian violence against Israelis. And even more important is whether he will be able to persuade the Israelis to end their unceasingly violent behavior towards the Palestinian population.
Israeli commentators are being unusually circumspect in judging the situation among the various Palestinian factions, hoping of course that there really will be an opening to peace, even on a limited scale.
The Sharon government so far has made only minor concessions in facilitating a successful Palestinian election. It has agreed to release 200 Palestinian prisoners out of the 8,000 they are holding as a gesture of good will to Egypt. It has agreed to allow voter registration on the West Bank and Gaza to proceed, but registering the 200,000 Palestinians in East Jerusalem remains problematic. Israel wants to cut the Palestinian ties to East Jerusalem as much as possible. Sharon's government has announced that it will allow voting in East Jerusalem, but as in 1996, the number of voting places may be so limited that only a few thousand will be able to actually vote. The Israelis continue to re-issue resident permits in a very dilatory fashion, including those of American citizens of Palestinian birth and residence in East Jerusalem.
Despite this cloud over facilitating democracy in Palestine, the polls indicate that Mahmoud Abbas is likely to gain a clear majority.
Nonetheless, despite Marwan Barghouti's withdrawal, there will be confusion in the minds of some voters, particularly those in Gaza, who may vote for Dr. Mustafa Barghouti thinking they are voting for Marwan Barghouti. Dr. Mustafa Barghouti is much better known on the West Bank than he is in Gaza.
It should be noted that there are no important candidates in the race for president now representing those who wish to continue the intifada. But Marwan Barghouti, in withdrawing, made plain that he expected Abbas to continue the struggle.
Abbas is the candidate of choice for Israel and the United States, in expectation that he will end the violent response of Palestinians to the occupation. Only if Israel continues her violent retaliations and assassinations will Abbas face a situation where he may be unable to stop the young guerrillas who have been blooded in the most recent intifada.
The new Israeli national coalition government will also have strong contradictory impulses built into it, with Shimon Peres on one side and Ariel Sharon and the ultra-Orthodox Jewish colonists on the other. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for Sharon to step back and find other means than violent retaliation to respond to any major incidents. Abbas needs breathing room to build an effective security service. In the present atmosphere it seems almost impossible to conceive of joint Palestinian-Israeli patrols, an effective tool during the Oslo process.
Palestinian and Israeli commentators agree that Abu Mazen has so far made not a single misstep. He has even visited Kuwait, once a great supporter of the Palestinian cause, and apologized for the mistake the Palestine Liberation Organization made in 1990 by supporting Saddam Hussein.
It is interesting to compare the losses of civilians and "insurgents" in Iraq, which number some 15,000 to 20,000 in a population of 25 million. The Palestinian West Bank and Gaza population is about 1/10th of that. Palestinian families have lost the equivalent, when compared to Iraq, of 35,000 killed and some 200,000 hospitalized. More and more, the juxtaposition of Palestinian elections on January 9th and Iraqi elections on January 30th represents the most crucial test yet of the Bush doctrine of spreading democracy in the Middle East and around the world.
It is probably a safe bet that the Palestinian elections will be accompanied by much less violence than the elections in Iraq. But both elections are only the beginning of a very long and difficult phase in American relations with the Middle East.
Council for the National Interest <count@igc.org>