Jerusalem Post: Bush remains in our corner

[Moses]

Analysis: Bush remains in our corner
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Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 14, 2004
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....The same confident Bush appeared before the press Friday, alongside British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has been talking for weeks about the need to speed up the Middle East peace process, and for greater US involvement.

This type of talk by a European leader – even a friendly European leader – is inevitably greeted in Israel by concerns that the other shoe is about to drop, that Israel will now face excruciating pressure to make concessions.

These concerns were heightened by the realization that, after the US election, there would be a real effort by both the US and Europe to bridge the growing transatlantic gap, and a fear that the US may want to pay for some kind of European support in Iraq with Israeli currency.

Bush, in his signature fashion, pretty much put those concerns to rest on Friday.

"I don't think there will ever be lasting peace until there is a free, truly democratic society in the Palestinian territories that becomes a state," he said.

Bush made clear that he remains committed to the vision enunciated in his June 2002 speech: a two-state solution, but only after there are deep, meaningful, and lasting political and security reforms in the Palestinian Authority.

Neither his reelection with only a quarter of the Jewish vote, nor Arafat's death, has moved him off the mark.

In recent weeks, there has been much speculation in Israel and in the US Jewish community whether a post-election Bush, who doesn't need Jewish votes or money for any future campaign, will be as supportive of Israel as a preelection Bush.
His comments, with Blair at his side, seem to indicate that he will be.

For those who believe that Bush's support for Israel during his first term was merely "pandering" to the Jewish vote – an estimation often voiced in Arab and some European capitals – then the fact that he only received a quarter of that Jewish vote should set him on a new Middle East course altogether.

But those who hold this view underestimate the newly reelected president. Bush's support for Israel and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's policies stems less from an attempt to win over the Jewish votes in Florida, as important as they were, and more from a fundamental agreement with Sharon on how to fight terrorism – that you take the fight to the enemy, that you remain firm against terrorists even when the going gets rough and bloody.

Bush ran this election in part on the antiterror ticket, and both he and Sharon are on the same page regarding how to fight terrorism. Bush's comments Friday also indicate that his vision has also not been clouded by Arafat's death, and the romantic hope that now, suddenly, everything can change for the better.

"The months ahead offer a new opportunity to make progress toward a lasting peace. Soon Palestinians will choose a new president. This is the first step in creating lasting democratic political institutions through which a free Palestinian people will elect local and national leaders," Bush said.

"We're committed to the success of these elections, and we stand ready to help. We look forward to working with a Palestinian leadership that is committed to fighting terror and committed to the cause of democratic reform. We'll mobilize the international community to help revive the Palestinian economy, to build up Palestinian security institutions to fight terror, to help the Palestinian government fight corruption, and to reform the Palestinian political system and build democratic institutions."

In other words, a change of leadership is important, but it is not the end of a line. Only a new leadership that will carry out the reform Bush talked about two years ago is a leadership that will lead the Palestinians to their state.

This is important for Israel, concerned that the elections themselves will be seen by many around the world as a fulfillment of a key commitment under the road map, even if the newly elected leaders do nothing to fight terrorism.

"We seek a democratic, independent, and viable state for the Palestinian people. We are committed to the security of Israel as a Jewish state," Bush reiterated. "These objectives – two states living side-by-side in peace and security – can be reached by only one path: the path of democracy, reform, and the rule of law."

Blair came to Washington apparently looking for shortcuts. Bush gave him none, and Jerusalem heaved a huge sigh of relief.
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[Moses]

December 1, 2004 Edition

Bush Quietly Decides To Focus on Palestinian Reform

BY ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
December 1, 2004
URL: www.nysun.com/article/5575

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration will respond to the death of Yasser Arafat by pressing for Palestinian reform rather than a resumption of the final-status negotiation with Israel.

Some in the pro-Israel community here had feared that a second Bush term, along with the death of Arafat, would bring additional pressure from Washington on Jerusalem. Mr. Bush might reach for an Arab-Israeli deal as a legacy, and Mr. Bush, in his second term, would be less constrained by fear of alienating key domestic constituencies, this reasoning went.

But sources inside and outside the administration say that Mr. Bush not only had a warm meeting with Israeli politician Natan Sharansky, who views Palestinian freedom and civil society as preconditions for Israeli concessions - he has adopted Mr. Sharansky's policy as his own.

In the last 10 days, senior White House officials have fanned out across Washington to quietly inform Congress, diplomats, think tank analysts, and key interest groups that the president intends to press the next Palestinian leader to make key structural changes to insure the rule of law, effective counterterrorism, and transparency before reviving the negotiations that stalled in the final weeks of the Clinton presidency.

On Monday, for example, the president's nominee for secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, met with leaders of the Jewish community and promised that America would not send a new envoy or endorse a peace conference after the January 9 Palestinian elections, according to attendees of the meeting.

The executive vice chairman of the conference of presidents of major Jewish Organizations, Malcolm Hoenlein, said yesterday, "We were very pleased with the discussion that they recognized the opportunities from the changes in the region like Arafat's departure. At the same time the administration recognizes a full sense of the realities and they will abide by the principles enunciated by the president all along."

Last week, the national security council's senior adviser on the Middle East, Elliott Abrams, met with European ambassadors at the White House where he stressed the president's statement that America's position was that an eventual final settlement would have to acknowledge Israel's claim to the territory on the West Bank that hosts the majority of settlements.

An administration official familiar with the president's policy told The New York Sun yesterday, "There will not be a round of shuttle diplomacy and there will not be efforts to push final status issues. But there will be increased diplomatic efforts to help the Palestinians succeed in their reforms and help Prime Minister Sharon succeed in the Gaza disengagement."

To that end, the State Department's Bureau of Near East Affairs is already hard at work drawing up a series of specific reforms it would like to see in the Palestinian territories after the elections scheduled for January 9. Next week, American diplomats will travel to Oslo for two successive meetings on Palestinian reform among the donors supporting the original 1993 Oslo Accords and a working group created by the quartet to address the reform requirements set forth in the road map. In September, 45 Palestinian security officers received training from the Egyptian intelligence and the CIA. American officials say the agency plans to oversee more of this kind of training in the coming months.

While the president has voiced support for democracy before negotiations in his speeches since his June 24, 2002, Rose Garden address urging the Palestinian people to choose new and different leaders untainted by terror, his diplomacy has been marked by numerous efforts to impose an eventual settlement of the final status issues unresolved when Arafat and Ehud Barak failed to cut a deal in 2000. Most notable was the creation of the "road map," a set of commitments that envisioned a peace conference by the end of 2003 and the formation of the "quartet," a working group comprised of American, European Union, Russian, and United Nations diplomats to shepherd the eventual negotiations.

With the death in November of Arafat, three pillars of that quartet - the Europeans, Russians, and United Nations, lobbied Mr. Bush to name a special en for the issue and set a time frame for when the final status talks would start again. Indeed, a group of European foreign ministers had planned a visit to Ramallah in November before Arafat became ill in an effort to revive the ailing leader's image and restart peace discussions.

The road map's strongest advocate inside the Bush administration was the departing secretary of state, Colin Powell. His assistant secretary for Near East affairs, William Burns, has also been offered the ambassadorship in Moscow. Meanwhile, Mr. Burns's rival inside the first Bush administration on Middle East policy, Mr. Abrams, is being considered for the powerful position of deputy national security adviser. In an administration in which policy has often been determined by personnel, new advisers will also likely bring new approaches.

Instead of looking like a warmed-over version of President Clinton's Near East diplomacy, the president's approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict looks to be following the tone and substance of the ideas of Mr. Sharansky, whom he met on November 11 before a critical meeting with Prime Minister Blair of Britain as Arafat was dying in a Paris hospital. Mr. Bush is said to have read Mr. Sharansky's latest book in which the former Soviet dissident said the road map process undermined the substance of Mr. Bush's June 24, 2002, speech envisioning new and different Palestinian leaders.

Mr. Sharansky has served as a key channel between Prime Minister Sharon and the Bush administration since December 2000, when he met with Vice President Cheney soon after the Supreme Court decision that handed Mr. Bush the presidency. Mr. Sharansky went on Israeli television after his meeting with Mr. Cheney, whom he has known since his release from a Soviet gulag, and said the new administration would not pressure Israel to negotiate with Arafat. Since that meeting, Mr. Sharansky has slowly but surely made his case to Ms. Rice, the vice president, and other key administration officials that no peace with the Palestinian Arabs would be possible for Israel until a Palestinian leadership became committed to building the institutions of a free state.

"The peace process has always been characterized by form over substance, process over peace. President Bush made clear that he is uninterested in summits for the sake of c*cktails and conferences to trade accusations," the vice president for foreign policy and defense studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Danielle Pletka, said yesterday. "I imagine if the process for achieving genuine results on the ground is real, the White House will do all that it takes and more."

December 1, 2004

[Moses]

Bush: $20 Million For P.A.

Matthew E. Berger
Special to the Jewish Times

NOVEMBER 30, 2004
Washington

The Bush administration is lobbying Congress to approve a plan to give $20 million to the Palestinian Authority ahead of Palestinian presidential elections — or at least, not to oppose the aid.

The State Department can give the direct aid to Palestinian leaders without a congressional vote, as it did a year ago, but support from Capitol Hill is seen as politically important.

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) is one of the most vocal critics of the plan, and his support for the president's other legislative initiatives is crucial.

In the week since the administration first proposed the plan to congressional leaders, Bush administration officials have suggested a number of proposals that might appease DeLay and other opponents.

Delay's camp is confident the administration will not pick a major fight with the majority leader over $20 million.

"Before we send money to the Palestinian Authority, there needs to be reforms attached to that," said Stuart Roy, a DeLay spokesman.

Traditionally, Jewish groups and other pro-Israel activists have opposed giving aid directly to the Palestinian Authority, concerned about a history of corruption and terrorist financing. But with the death of P.A. President Yasser Arafat and the prospect of more moderate leaders, many suggest it makes sense for the United States to support potential Palestinian reformers.

Even if the plan is implemented, it remains unclear where the funds would go.

President Bush wants to ensure smooth elections to choose a replacement for Arafat, whom Washington shunned because of his ties to terrorism.

In meetings in the Middle East this week, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell highlighted the Palestinian Authority's financial needs, saying he would work with congressional leaders to try to get the assistance.

The diplomatic "Quartet" behind the "road map" peace plan — the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia — also pledged to provide funding for the Palestinian elections.

"This is the time to assist them in holding a good, solid election on the ninth of January," Powell said Monday in Jericho, where he met with Palestinian leaders.

Still, the money may be for broader budgetary help than for elections — for instance, to help the Palestinian Authority meet its payroll.

William Burns, assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, spoke last week to congressional opponents of the funding, including Rep. Tom Lantos (D-Calif.), and suggested aid to the Palestinians could come in forms other than cash.

"The congressman had been first given to understand that large amounts of cash were going to the leaders of the Palestinian Authority," said Lynne Weil, Lantos' spokeswoman. "But there was no specific plan as to how it was going to be channeled, who it was going to."

A program that would allow the Palestinian Authority to repay debts to Israel, freeing up funds to facilitate elections, likely would enjoy more support from American Jewish officials and congressional supporters of Israel.

One effort on Capitol Hill, a letter orchestrated by Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) in support of the Bush administration's plan, has stalled. The letter would have sought stringent controls to promote fiscal transparency and prevent misuse of funds.

"Our inclination is to support the administration," Ackerman said. "But the administration doesn't seem to have its act together now and we want to make sure we know what they are doing before we agree with them."

Ackerman said he would prefer that the money be used for P.A. elections or to pay off P.A. debts to Israel, such as an outstanding $20 million electric bill. He said he is more inclined to back direct aid than in the past, now that Arafat, who led a famously corrupt regime, is dead.

Israel's annual aid appropriation from the United States — close to $2.2 billion in military aid and $360 million in economic assistance — passed Congress on Saturday.

Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza traditionally receive about $75 million from the United States. Rather than going directly to the Palestinian Authority, the aid traditionally has been doled out to NGOs through the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.N. Relief and Works Agency.

Numerous laws over the years have blocked direct U.S. aid to the Palestinians, but a waiver in the Foreign Assistance Act allows for spending of up to $25 million for "unanticipated contingencies." The $20 million being proposed is seen as more of a symbolic gesture of support for the emerging leadership than real aid for the economy.

Some Jewish leaders already have come out in support of the Bush plan.

"We believe the administration has the correct policy, as stated by the president," a coalition of some 70 Jewish leaders wrote this week to Condoleezza Rice, congratulating her on her nomination as secretary of state in the next Bush administration. "Although you enter office with a myriad of pressing problems, we also believe that additional time and political capital devoted to this issue will bring positive results." The letter, signed by leaders of the Reform and Conservative movements as well as several major philanthropists and past chairmen of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, cited U.S. assistance to the Palestinians ahead of elections as a priority.

AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby that often takes the lead on questions of aid to the Palestinians, has not expressed itself directly on the proposal.

"We are hopeful that with the election of new leadership and fundamental reform of the Palestinian Authority, as called for by the president in his June 24, 2002, Rose Garden speech and outlined in the road map, that there will be an opportunity for Palestinians to rejuvenate the economy and begin to build a civil society," AIPAC spokesman Andrew Schwartz said in response to JTA queries.

Some Jewish leaders suggested the plan was a done deal, and focused attention on ensuring the aid was given with oversight and accountability.

While there has not been vocal opposition to the plan in the Jewish community, there also has not been the same widespread support as there was for last year's aid disbursement, when another $20 million was deposited in P.A. coffers when Mahmoud Abbas took over briefly as prime minister and sparked hopes for a revival of peace talks. Abbas is the frontrunner to be elected president in January.

"You'd like to think all American Jewish groups would get behind the president and the prime minister at this very important hour," said Lewis Roth, assistant executive director of Americans for Peace Now.

But some noted that Congress has reasons to be wary.

"We don't want to go back to the period where money pours in and it is used and misused," said Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. [Is he talking about the $3 billion in aid to Israel?!] "That's what Congress is saying."

DeLay's position, as both the second-ranking Republican in the House and one of Israel's most vocal backers, has forced the Bush administration to tread carefully when discussing direct aid to the Palestinians.

A U.S. official said the State Department reached out to DeLay and other lawmakers this year because they were chastised for not doing so sufficiently last year.

The official said State Department aides touted the success of last year's aid package. While hopes for a peace deal under Abbas never materialized, there were positive steps.

"There weren't strings attached, but there were enough people on the ground to make sure the money wasn't going in the wrong pockets," the official said.

Jewish groups have been walking a tightrope on the issue.

On the one hand, they recognize the need to support emerging Palestinian leaders perceived as more moderate than Arafat.

But they remain concerned that permissible uses for the money have not been spelled out explicitly and that oversight mechanisms have not been established. Without those caveats, Jewish leaders said they feel uncomfortable publicly backing the plan.

Jewish groups on the left and right of the political spectrum have felt freer to speak than those in the center.

In a statement Monday, Americans for Peace Now praised Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for their efforts and took a swipe at DeLay, implying his hard-line views may actually exacerbate terrorism.

"Tom DeLay may say that he is a friend of Israel, but his actions indicate otherwise," said Debra DeLee, APN's president and CEO.

"No real friend of Israel would try to block President Bush from attempting to end Israeli-Palestinian violence," she said. "Nor would a real friend of Israel seek to deny Palestinians an opportunity to exercise their democratic rights in elections that could provide some much needed stability in the region."

Morton Klein, national president of the Zionist Organization of America, opposed the aid plan, noting that Abbas was Arafat's deputy for 40 years and co-founded the Fatah movement, which has been linked to numerous terrorist attacks during the intifada.

"There should be no increase in aid to a terrorist regime that has not fulfilled its obligations according to Oslo," Klein said.

This story reprinted courtesy of the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.