Post by Moses on Nov 5, 2004 0:42:00 GMT -5
Written by veteran investigative reporter Bob Dreyfuss , The Dreyfuss Report offers readers the story behind daily headlines and policies pursued on behalf of national security. Send feedback to The Dreyfuss Report at DreyfussReport@tompaine.com.
Four More Years
November 04, 2004
The next few weeks will provide at least three important clues about the power of the neocons in Bush II.
First, watch Fallujah. If the offensive unfolds, and spreads to Ramadi and other Sunni centers as expected, then it means that Bush has decided on an all-out push for military victory there. I don’t agree with those who say it’s impossible. Overwhelming military force usually wins, and Bush can win—but at the price of countless unnecessary dead. A pre-Iraq election offensive can stabilize the country in the short term, over the dead bodies of thousands, but it will create an unstable Iraqi government that will depend on U.S. military propping up for decades. That, of course, is just what Bush & Co. want—to squat indefinitely at the heart of the world’s oil supply.
Second, watch Iran. Neocons are already making noises that Iran will require the utilization of force to back up a disarmament move against Iran’s alleged nukes. The deadline is Nov. 25 there. That’s when Bush insists that the Iran issue go to the UN Security Council. The entire deadline issue is silly: Iran isn’t going to war against anyone anytime soon, and it will take many years for them to develop nukes, if they indeed decide to plunge ahead. But it could push Iran to the head of the neocon agenda early in 2005.
Third, watch the Nov. 22 Cairo conference on Iraq. If the Bush people, as expected, blow off France, Egypt and other moderate voices seeking to solve Iraq’s political crisis in favor of a U.S.-first policy of control and a military solution, then it’s clear that the neocons are in the driver's seat.
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