Post by Moses on Dec 29, 2004 21:13:59 GMT -5
29-12-2004
[/size][/center]
James Petras[/color]
Rebelión[/size]
....In Latin America, the US will continue to focus on Colombia and a political-military victory against the popular guerrilla forces. They will increase the US mercenary military presence, exercise greater direct supervision of elite Colombian troops and deepen collaboration with Ecuadorian, Venezuelan and Brazilian defense ministries and security forces to tighten the external “encirclement” of the guerrillas while pursuing a murderous internal policy of emptying the countryside of peasants. US multi-national oil companies will intensify their presence in Latin America, especially in Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina and Ecuador, reaching major “joint” exploration agreements, highly favorable to the US.
Politically the US will continue to pressure the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the Kirchner government in Argentina to move toward greater accommodations on domestic and foreign policies. In both regimes, US covert influence is present in the highest spheres of the armed forces, foreign ministries and security forces. The US can be expected to conduct a “two track policy” of supporting the extreme right on the outside (Macri, Menem and Murphy in Argentina and the pro-coup Convergencia in Venezuela) and the so-called “moderates” within the regimes.
The US will continue to give strong support to the neo-liberal regimes in Brazil, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador but will also work closely with the neo-liberal opposition.
Given the overall weak military position of the US due to the situation in Iraq, the US will work even closer with the Latin American military and security forces to repress rising political opposition.
Washington will focus on pressuring Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela to weaken their commercial and security ties with Cuba either via “inter-American” agreements or via “security co-operation with the US client regime in Colombia.
The main challenge to the US and its political clients in Latin America in 2005 will come from a multiplicity of new and renewed forces: Organized workers in Argentina; workers and unemployed workers and peasant groups in Bolivia; the new trade union ‘CONLUTA’ in Brazil along with militant sectors of the MST and sectors of the public employees unions; the revived Indian movement CONAIE in Ecuador and an expected major counter-offensive by the popular and guerrilla movements in Colombia. In the electoral movement arena, Lopez Obrador’s candidacy for President and the formation of a “transversal” independent alliance of workers, peasants and civic groups could lead to a heightened political polarization in Mexico with important political implications. In Venezuela there is likely to be greater polarization between the popular base of the Chavista movement and important sectors of the “moderate” leadership.
The year 2005 will generally witness the “end of illusions” about the “center-left” electoral alliances, new political polarizations in Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. Washington, tied down by its Middle East and Asian Wars, will rely on political clients, like Lula and Uribe to carry the ball and, in an emergency, the local security forces. As the New Year begins however the military and economic prospects for the US Empire are worse than a year ago. We can foresee a “New Year” of deepening wars, economic crisis and growing direct action.
[/size][/center]
James Petras[/color]
Rebelión[/size]
....In Latin America, the US will continue to focus on Colombia and a political-military victory against the popular guerrilla forces. They will increase the US mercenary military presence, exercise greater direct supervision of elite Colombian troops and deepen collaboration with Ecuadorian, Venezuelan and Brazilian defense ministries and security forces to tighten the external “encirclement” of the guerrillas while pursuing a murderous internal policy of emptying the countryside of peasants. US multi-national oil companies will intensify their presence in Latin America, especially in Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina and Ecuador, reaching major “joint” exploration agreements, highly favorable to the US.
Politically the US will continue to pressure the Chavez regime in Venezuela and the Kirchner government in Argentina to move toward greater accommodations on domestic and foreign policies. In both regimes, US covert influence is present in the highest spheres of the armed forces, foreign ministries and security forces. The US can be expected to conduct a “two track policy” of supporting the extreme right on the outside (Macri, Menem and Murphy in Argentina and the pro-coup Convergencia in Venezuela) and the so-called “moderates” within the regimes.
The US will continue to give strong support to the neo-liberal regimes in Brazil, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador but will also work closely with the neo-liberal opposition.
Given the overall weak military position of the US due to the situation in Iraq, the US will work even closer with the Latin American military and security forces to repress rising political opposition.
Washington will focus on pressuring Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela to weaken their commercial and security ties with Cuba either via “inter-American” agreements or via “security co-operation with the US client regime in Colombia.
The main challenge to the US and its political clients in Latin America in 2005 will come from a multiplicity of new and renewed forces: Organized workers in Argentina; workers and unemployed workers and peasant groups in Bolivia; the new trade union ‘CONLUTA’ in Brazil along with militant sectors of the MST and sectors of the public employees unions; the revived Indian movement CONAIE in Ecuador and an expected major counter-offensive by the popular and guerrilla movements in Colombia. In the electoral movement arena, Lopez Obrador’s candidacy for President and the formation of a “transversal” independent alliance of workers, peasants and civic groups could lead to a heightened political polarization in Mexico with important political implications. In Venezuela there is likely to be greater polarization between the popular base of the Chavista movement and important sectors of the “moderate” leadership.
The year 2005 will generally witness the “end of illusions” about the “center-left” electoral alliances, new political polarizations in Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. Washington, tied down by its Middle East and Asian Wars, will rely on political clients, like Lula and Uribe to carry the ball and, in an emergency, the local security forces. As the New Year begins however the military and economic prospects for the US Empire are worse than a year ago. We can foresee a “New Year” of deepening wars, economic crisis and growing direct action.
