Post by RPankn on Apr 21, 2004 17:24:12 GMT -5
In Spite of Media Coverage, Widespread Belief in Weapons of Mass Destruction and Iraqi Links to Al Qaeda Remain Virtually Unchanged
ROCHESTER, N.Y., April 21 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Harris Poll finds that public perceptions of the facts that led up to the invasion of Iraq remain almost unchanged in spite of a barrage of media reports that might have changed them.
For example:
-- A 51% to 38% majority continues to believe that "Iraq actually had weapons of mass destruction," virtually unchanged since February.
-- A 49% to 36% plurality of all adults continues to believe that "clear evidence that Iraq was supporting Al Qaeda has been found." These numbers have scarcely changed since June 2003.
-- A 51% to 43% plurality continues to believe that "intelligence given before the war to President Bush by the CIA and others about Iraqi's weapons of mass destruction" was "completely" or "somewhat" accurate. In February a 50% to 45% plurality believed this.
-- While a 43% plurality believes that the "U.S. government deliberately exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to increase support for war," a 50% plurality (also virtually unchanged over the last eight months) continues to believe that the government "tried to present the information accurately."
These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 979 adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between April 8 and 15, 2004.
Sense of being "bogged down" increases
Only one of the eight questions asked in this survey on Iraq found any significant change over the last two months. Those who believe that it is "very likely" that the U.S. will get "bogged down for a long time in Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there" have increased from 37% in February to 45% now. However this has had no significant impact on the number of people who "favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops there until there is a stable government " (42%) or those who favor "bringing most of our troops home in the next year" (51%).
A case of cognitive dissonance?
The remarkable stability of these numbers suggest that people have made up their minds on many of the key issues relating to weapons of mass destruction and links to Al Qaeda, and that it would take something very big to change them. It seems that people believe media reports which fit with their opinions and reject those which do not. The balance on several of the key questions is tilted roughly 50% to 40% in favor of the administration.
The potential impact of these issues in the November elections
If President Bush continues to enjoy this modest but significant advantage between now and November, it will be difficult for Senator Kerry and the Democrats to use these issues against him in the election campaign. If, on the other hand, a substantial majority of the public comes to believe that there were no weapons of mass destruction, or links to Al Qaeda, or that President Bush exaggerated the evidence to increase support for the invasion, the result could be disastrous for him.
TABLE 1
FAVOR KEEPING LARGE NUMBER OF U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ OR
BRINGING MOST HOME IN NEXT YEAR
"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a
stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Oct. Feb. April
% % %
Favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in
Iraq until there is a stable government there 46 45 42
Favor bringing most of our troops home in the
next year 47 51 51
Not sure/Refused 7 4 8
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.
TABLE 2
HOW LIKELY U.S. WILL GET BOGGED DOWN FOR A LONG TIME
"How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will get bogged down for a long
time in Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there? Would you
say that is ...?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
October December February April
% % % %
Very likely 42 39 37 45
Somewhat likely 32 30 36 29
Not very likely 14 22 16 13
Not at all likely 7 5 7 8
Not sure/Refused 5 4 5 5
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.
TABLE 3
WERE U.S. GOVERNMENT'S STATEMENTS ABOUT IRAQ, TERRORISTS AND WEAPONS
ACCURATE OR INACCURATE?
"Do you believe that what we were told by the government before the Iraq war
about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and Iraq's links to Al Qaeda, the
terrorist organization, was generally accurate or misleading?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
June August October December February April
% % % % % %
Generally
accurate 55 47 44 45 40 40
Misleading 36 45 50 47 53 51
Not sure/Refused 10 8 6 8 6 9
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.
ROCHESTER, N.Y., April 21 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Harris Poll finds that public perceptions of the facts that led up to the invasion of Iraq remain almost unchanged in spite of a barrage of media reports that might have changed them.
For example:
-- A 51% to 38% majority continues to believe that "Iraq actually had weapons of mass destruction," virtually unchanged since February.
-- A 49% to 36% plurality of all adults continues to believe that "clear evidence that Iraq was supporting Al Qaeda has been found." These numbers have scarcely changed since June 2003.
-- A 51% to 43% plurality continues to believe that "intelligence given before the war to President Bush by the CIA and others about Iraqi's weapons of mass destruction" was "completely" or "somewhat" accurate. In February a 50% to 45% plurality believed this.
-- While a 43% plurality believes that the "U.S. government deliberately exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to increase support for war," a 50% plurality (also virtually unchanged over the last eight months) continues to believe that the government "tried to present the information accurately."
These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 979 adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between April 8 and 15, 2004.
Sense of being "bogged down" increases
Only one of the eight questions asked in this survey on Iraq found any significant change over the last two months. Those who believe that it is "very likely" that the U.S. will get "bogged down for a long time in Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there" have increased from 37% in February to 45% now. However this has had no significant impact on the number of people who "favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops there until there is a stable government " (42%) or those who favor "bringing most of our troops home in the next year" (51%).
A case of cognitive dissonance?
The remarkable stability of these numbers suggest that people have made up their minds on many of the key issues relating to weapons of mass destruction and links to Al Qaeda, and that it would take something very big to change them. It seems that people believe media reports which fit with their opinions and reject those which do not. The balance on several of the key questions is tilted roughly 50% to 40% in favor of the administration.
The potential impact of these issues in the November elections
If President Bush continues to enjoy this modest but significant advantage between now and November, it will be difficult for Senator Kerry and the Democrats to use these issues against him in the election campaign. If, on the other hand, a substantial majority of the public comes to believe that there were no weapons of mass destruction, or links to Al Qaeda, or that President Bush exaggerated the evidence to increase support for the invasion, the result could be disastrous for him.
TABLE 1
FAVOR KEEPING LARGE NUMBER OF U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ OR
BRINGING MOST HOME IN NEXT YEAR
"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a
stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Oct. Feb. April
% % %
Favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in
Iraq until there is a stable government there 46 45 42
Favor bringing most of our troops home in the
next year 47 51 51
Not sure/Refused 7 4 8
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.
TABLE 2
HOW LIKELY U.S. WILL GET BOGGED DOWN FOR A LONG TIME
"How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will get bogged down for a long
time in Iraq and not be able to create a stable government there? Would you
say that is ...?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
October December February April
% % % %
Very likely 42 39 37 45
Somewhat likely 32 30 36 29
Not very likely 14 22 16 13
Not at all likely 7 5 7 8
Not sure/Refused 5 4 5 5
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.
TABLE 3
WERE U.S. GOVERNMENT'S STATEMENTS ABOUT IRAQ, TERRORISTS AND WEAPONS
ACCURATE OR INACCURATE?
"Do you believe that what we were told by the government before the Iraq war
about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and Iraq's links to Al Qaeda, the
terrorist organization, was generally accurate or misleading?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
June August October December February April
% % % % % %
Generally
accurate 55 47 44 45 40 40
Misleading 36 45 50 47 53 51
Not sure/Refused 10 8 6 8 6 9
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.