Post by Moses on Apr 30, 2005 2:46:07 GMT -5
Mideast players continue chessboard moves
www.washingtonjewishweek.com/localstory.php?/wjw2/291395798614536.bsp
When Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas visits the White House, probably in late May, he is expected to press President George W. Bush to put some teeth into his repeated demands for an Israeli settlement freeze and the removal of illegal outposts on the West Bank.
But it will be a tough sell. The president, while clearly at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon over settlements, has just as clearly signaled his acceptance of the Israeli leader's vision for final borders. That was the underlying message of this month's U.S.-Israeli summit in Texas.
Abbas will tell the president that settlement expansion infuriates his people, undercuts his political reform efforts, makes it increasingly difficult for them to build a viable state and suggests Sharon is not sincere about wanting peace.
Abbas can be expected to remind Bush that when he met Sharon at Crawford in mid-April, the president publicly insisted the Israeli leader honor his " 'road map' obligations regarding settlements in the West Bank," meaning "no expansion of settlements," not even "natural growth."
Bush will sympathize with Abbas, but remind him the future of the West Bank settlements is largely up to the Palestinians.
That means a peaceful Israeli pullout from Gaza, a successful Palestinian takeover and the dismantling of the Palestinian terror network.
Washington wants Abbas to coordinate the pullout with Israeli authorities to make sure it does not turn into an orgy of victory celebrations punctuated by Palestinian violence intended to bolster claims that the Zionists were driven out by force.
Bush will remind Abbas of the importance of replacing the corrupt and violent Arafat era with a stable, honest government that respects the rule of law and honors its commitments, starting with dismantling the terror infrastructure.
It is no secret that Washington is upset with both Abbas' reluctance to confront the extremists and his invitations to include them in his government and security forces.
Abbas will tell Bush that he doesn't have the power to disarm Hamas and other extremist groups -- although he hasn't really tried. He is worried that they could wrest control of the P.A. from his Fatah faction in legislative elections scheduled for July.
As Sharon did in Crawford, Abbas will stress the political pressure he faces from radicals in his own camp and argue that he should not be pressed too hard to honor his obligations lest his government fall.
Bush is sympathetic and trying to help politically and financially, but look for him to continue to demand results on the security front that go beyond relying on the terrorists' promises to behave. Palestinian threats of a renewed Intifada unless their demands are met won't impress Bush.
However, the president's lack of support for Abbas' faith-based opposition to terror does not mean he accepts Sharon's demand for 100 percent success.
The hallmark of Bush-Sharon relations has been their ability to disagree without being disagreeable, but that hasn't stopped administration officials from expressing their suspicions that Sharon will use his maximalist expectations as an excuse to delay further withdrawals from the West Bank beyond the settlements that are part of the Gaza package.
Bush has been reluctant to lean very hard on Sharon because he sympathizes with the political risks the prime minister is taking in Gaza, but how long can that last?
Sharon is betting Abbas can't deliver on his security obligations, but just to make sure he's raising the bar, he's demanding a level of effectiveness even the Israeli army couldn't meet in nearly 38 years of occupation.
He told an Israeli reporter last week that he is confident he can resist international pressure to follow the Gaza withdrawal with similar moves on the West Bank, but he had a different message when he met with Jewish leaders in Washington the week before.
He told them he is very sensitive to Bush's concerns over settlements and left the impression that he would not allow differences over the issue harm the relationship he has worked so hard to build.
Israeli officials were delivering a similar message, suggesting if Bush presses hard enough, Sharon will comply, but that they really don't expect Abbas to give Bush the backing he'll need if he's to confront the Israeli leader.
"If we get a signal that Abbas is really controlling what's going on in the Palestinian camp and commitments on fighting terrorism are being taken, I can see Sharon moving ahead in a much more significant way. But since so little is happening, why bother stretching political resources," said a senior diplomat. [yeah, right]
The major achievement of the Crawford meeting was a virtual agreement between Bush and Sharon over Israel's eventual borders, with some prodding from the Israeli high court.
The White House has blessed Sharon's route for the security barrier -- which, despite his denials, most believe represents his vision of the future border. [b/]It leaves 99.5 percent of the Palestinians and 92 percent of the West Bank on the Palestinian side.
Three quarters of the Jewish settlers and the major settlement blocks will be on the Israeli side. This meshes with Bush's letter to Sharon last year acknowledging that "new realities on the ground make it unrealistic to expect" Israel to return to the 1967 lines. [And this in fact, is why the Usraelis invaded Iraq-- to create a reality on the ground that ensures Israel will be able to gobble up Palestine]
Although Bush has said "that's the American view" and any changes must be "mutually agreed" to by the parties, he left no doubt where the United States would throw its weight. [Because the US is just an extension of Israel-- a puppet, in a way, not the even-handed broker it was before the Israel lobby took control of US political apparatus by funding candidates who would do their bidding, and ensuring the defeat of all others, with the help of media headed by Israeli partisans.]
The big question is whether this time the Palestinians will be smart enough to grab hold of the Israeli proposal and use it to begin negotiations or follow Yasser Arafat's self-defeating approach of insisting 100 percent of their demands be met up front. [oh, please. do the Usraelis think we are stupid? ]
Douglas M. Bloomfield is a nationally syndicated columnist.
www.washingtonjewishweek.com/localstory.php?/wjw2/291395798614536.bsp
When Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas visits the White House, probably in late May, he is expected to press President George W. Bush to put some teeth into his repeated demands for an Israeli settlement freeze and the removal of illegal outposts on the West Bank.
But it will be a tough sell. The president, while clearly at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon over settlements, has just as clearly signaled his acceptance of the Israeli leader's vision for final borders. That was the underlying message of this month's U.S.-Israeli summit in Texas.
Abbas will tell the president that settlement expansion infuriates his people, undercuts his political reform efforts, makes it increasingly difficult for them to build a viable state and suggests Sharon is not sincere about wanting peace.
Abbas can be expected to remind Bush that when he met Sharon at Crawford in mid-April, the president publicly insisted the Israeli leader honor his " 'road map' obligations regarding settlements in the West Bank," meaning "no expansion of settlements," not even "natural growth."
Bush will sympathize with Abbas, but remind him the future of the West Bank settlements is largely up to the Palestinians.
That means a peaceful Israeli pullout from Gaza, a successful Palestinian takeover and the dismantling of the Palestinian terror network.
Washington wants Abbas to coordinate the pullout with Israeli authorities to make sure it does not turn into an orgy of victory celebrations punctuated by Palestinian violence intended to bolster claims that the Zionists were driven out by force.
Bush will remind Abbas of the importance of replacing the corrupt and violent Arafat era with a stable, honest government that respects the rule of law and honors its commitments, starting with dismantling the terror infrastructure.
It is no secret that Washington is upset with both Abbas' reluctance to confront the extremists and his invitations to include them in his government and security forces.
Abbas will tell Bush that he doesn't have the power to disarm Hamas and other extremist groups -- although he hasn't really tried. He is worried that they could wrest control of the P.A. from his Fatah faction in legislative elections scheduled for July.
As Sharon did in Crawford, Abbas will stress the political pressure he faces from radicals in his own camp and argue that he should not be pressed too hard to honor his obligations lest his government fall.
Bush is sympathetic and trying to help politically and financially, but look for him to continue to demand results on the security front that go beyond relying on the terrorists' promises to behave. Palestinian threats of a renewed Intifada unless their demands are met won't impress Bush.
However, the president's lack of support for Abbas' faith-based opposition to terror does not mean he accepts Sharon's demand for 100 percent success.
The hallmark of Bush-Sharon relations has been their ability to disagree without being disagreeable, but that hasn't stopped administration officials from expressing their suspicions that Sharon will use his maximalist expectations as an excuse to delay further withdrawals from the West Bank beyond the settlements that are part of the Gaza package.
Bush has been reluctant to lean very hard on Sharon because he sympathizes with the political risks the prime minister is taking in Gaza, but how long can that last?
Sharon is betting Abbas can't deliver on his security obligations, but just to make sure he's raising the bar, he's demanding a level of effectiveness even the Israeli army couldn't meet in nearly 38 years of occupation.
He told an Israeli reporter last week that he is confident he can resist international pressure to follow the Gaza withdrawal with similar moves on the West Bank, but he had a different message when he met with Jewish leaders in Washington the week before.
He told them he is very sensitive to Bush's concerns over settlements and left the impression that he would not allow differences over the issue harm the relationship he has worked so hard to build.
Israeli officials were delivering a similar message, suggesting if Bush presses hard enough, Sharon will comply, but that they really don't expect Abbas to give Bush the backing he'll need if he's to confront the Israeli leader.
"If we get a signal that Abbas is really controlling what's going on in the Palestinian camp and commitments on fighting terrorism are being taken, I can see Sharon moving ahead in a much more significant way. But since so little is happening, why bother stretching political resources," said a senior diplomat. [yeah, right]
The major achievement of the Crawford meeting was a virtual agreement between Bush and Sharon over Israel's eventual borders, with some prodding from the Israeli high court.
The White House has blessed Sharon's route for the security barrier -- which, despite his denials, most believe represents his vision of the future border. [b/]It leaves 99.5 percent of the Palestinians and 92 percent of the West Bank on the Palestinian side.
Three quarters of the Jewish settlers and the major settlement blocks will be on the Israeli side. This meshes with Bush's letter to Sharon last year acknowledging that "new realities on the ground make it unrealistic to expect" Israel to return to the 1967 lines. [And this in fact, is why the Usraelis invaded Iraq-- to create a reality on the ground that ensures Israel will be able to gobble up Palestine]
Although Bush has said "that's the American view" and any changes must be "mutually agreed" to by the parties, he left no doubt where the United States would throw its weight. [Because the US is just an extension of Israel-- a puppet, in a way, not the even-handed broker it was before the Israel lobby took control of US political apparatus by funding candidates who would do their bidding, and ensuring the defeat of all others, with the help of media headed by Israeli partisans.]
The big question is whether this time the Palestinians will be smart enough to grab hold of the Israeli proposal and use it to begin negotiations or follow Yasser Arafat's self-defeating approach of insisting 100 percent of their demands be met up front. [oh, please. do the Usraelis think we are stupid? ]
Douglas M. Bloomfield is a nationally syndicated columnist.