Post by Moses on Jan 17, 2005 22:00:49 GMT -5
Politics & Policies: Syria on the warpath?
By Claude Salhani
UPI International Editor
Washington, DC, Jan. 16 (UPI) -- In a move reminiscent of the coldest days of the Cold War, reports emerged last week of Syria's intention to re-equip itself with updated Russian armament, including long-range surface-to-surface missiles capable of targeting most cities in Israel. Indeed, Syrian President Bashar Assad is reported to be on the verge of striking the largest arms deal for his country in the last 20 years.
Assad, who is scheduled to visit Russia, intends to discuss the possible purchase of "Russian long-range rockets, long- and short-range anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles and other weapons," according to The Middle East Newsline.
Assad is due to arrive in St. Petersburg Jan. 24 for a four-day visit. He is expected to express his desire to Kremlin officials to expand "defense and military cooperation between Russia and Syria," thereby rekindling the old affair that existed between the two countries at the time when the Soviet Union was involved in Middle Eastern politics.
President Vladimir Putin reportedly has approved the sale of several of the weapons systems requested by Syria, according to Middle East Newsline.
Among the weapons on Syria's wish list is the Iskander-E mobile long-range rocket, also known as the SS-26 missile, and SA-18 surface-to-air missile. The SS-26 is intended to replace the aging SCUDS and has a range of about 280 kilometers, or 174 miles. The distance between Damascus and Tel Aviv is 213 kilometers, or 132 miles. Positioned closer to the Golan Heights they could reach practically most of Israel.
The Iskander-E can carry a 480-kilogram (1,058 pound) warhead. One of its great advantages is that it can easily overcome air defense systems.
The question that surfaces at this point is why would Syria -- a cash-strapped country with a struggling economy, and with the U.S. army at its eastern border -- be looking to upgrade its arsenal? And secondly, why would the Russians be raising the ante with the United States by jumping back into the Middle East melee and the armament race?
Russia's reasons may lie first in getting its hands on some hard currency. Unlike the communist Soviet Union, Putin's Russia is not about to extend a line of unlimited credit to Syria in the name of Socialism. Any sale of weaponry will be conducted in exchange for cash. Syria may get the needed funds either from the sale of its oil, or from generous donations from third countries, such as Iran, with whom the Syrians enjoy good relations.
Additionally, the deal gives Russia renewed entry into the Middle East after being sidelined for many years.
And third, this could be Putin's way of getting back at the United States and the European Union for their support of Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-Western candidate in last December's Ukraine elections.
Yushchenko - who, much to the detriment of the Russians, might take the former a Soviet republic into the EU and even into NATO -- was unequivocally supported by the West during Ukraine's "Orange Revolution." Russia not only lost its preferred candidate in the electoral race, but it also lost face. This is something the Russian president is not likely to forget any time soon. Re-entering the Middle East arena in support of Syria might appear to Putin as an easy way of getting back at the West.
As for Syria, its reasons for wanting to renew its weapons systems are actually quite simple. Syrian armed forces are entirely equipped with antiquated Soviet weaponry, much of which has been in disrepair since the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the demise of the Soviet Union. And since the end of the Cold War, Syria, previously a Soviet client, has been left out in the cold, unable to find an arms provider capable of re-supplying it on the same level as Moscow used to; and just as important, to do so on credit.
Damascus' outdated arsenal and much of its missile technology has most likely outlived its use-by date. Much of Syria's more sophisticated weaponry, such as its anti-aircraft missiles and surface-to surface missiles are falling apart at the seams, literally.
Syria, which considers itself still in a state of war with Israel, feels very vulnerable, and now all the more so since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Not that there was ever any love lost between the rival Baath parties in Baghdad and Damascus, but still, with the most powerful Arab army, Iraq was always willing to jump into a fight where Israel was concerned. This provided Syria somewhat of a security blanket when it came to making war with Israel.
The U.S. invasion of neighboring Iraq was meant to uncover Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction and expose his supposed links to international terrorism. As both accusation turned up to be without foundation, the Syrians feel that similar excuses could as easily be used to attack them. Continuing accusations that Syria supports the anti-American insurgency in Iraq and plays host to terrorist groups in Damascus is doing nothing to alleviate Syrian fears.
The dread of a U.S. military intervention might partially explain Assad's move to upgrade his military hardware. Another Syrian worry is that reinstated in the Oval Office for another four-year term President George W. Bush and the neo-conservatives are going to continue their push to "democratize" the Middle East. Much as Iran, Syria is one of the countries where the administration would like to see regime change. Such talk is keeping the Syrians edgy.
Finally, a more realistic assessment is that Syria might not be arming to defend itself against Israel or the United States. Syria would have difficulty deterring the brunt of a full-scale U.S. invasion -- should it ever occur. And Israel, already bogged down in the Palestinian territories is hardly about to initiate another Arab-Israeli war. Rather this Syrian rearming may be in preparation of what may come from Iraq after the Jan. 30 elections. A Shiite-ruled, Islamist leaning Iraq may be as worrisome to the Syrian Baath as the prospect of a U.S. invasion.
(Comments may be sent to Claude@upi.com.)
By Claude Salhani
UPI International Editor
Washington, DC, Jan. 16 (UPI) -- In a move reminiscent of the coldest days of the Cold War, reports emerged last week of Syria's intention to re-equip itself with updated Russian armament, including long-range surface-to-surface missiles capable of targeting most cities in Israel. Indeed, Syrian President Bashar Assad is reported to be on the verge of striking the largest arms deal for his country in the last 20 years.
Assad, who is scheduled to visit Russia, intends to discuss the possible purchase of "Russian long-range rockets, long- and short-range anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles and other weapons," according to The Middle East Newsline.
Assad is due to arrive in St. Petersburg Jan. 24 for a four-day visit. He is expected to express his desire to Kremlin officials to expand "defense and military cooperation between Russia and Syria," thereby rekindling the old affair that existed between the two countries at the time when the Soviet Union was involved in Middle Eastern politics.
President Vladimir Putin reportedly has approved the sale of several of the weapons systems requested by Syria, according to Middle East Newsline.
Among the weapons on Syria's wish list is the Iskander-E mobile long-range rocket, also known as the SS-26 missile, and SA-18 surface-to-air missile. The SS-26 is intended to replace the aging SCUDS and has a range of about 280 kilometers, or 174 miles. The distance between Damascus and Tel Aviv is 213 kilometers, or 132 miles. Positioned closer to the Golan Heights they could reach practically most of Israel.
The Iskander-E can carry a 480-kilogram (1,058 pound) warhead. One of its great advantages is that it can easily overcome air defense systems.
The question that surfaces at this point is why would Syria -- a cash-strapped country with a struggling economy, and with the U.S. army at its eastern border -- be looking to upgrade its arsenal? And secondly, why would the Russians be raising the ante with the United States by jumping back into the Middle East melee and the armament race?
Russia's reasons may lie first in getting its hands on some hard currency. Unlike the communist Soviet Union, Putin's Russia is not about to extend a line of unlimited credit to Syria in the name of Socialism. Any sale of weaponry will be conducted in exchange for cash. Syria may get the needed funds either from the sale of its oil, or from generous donations from third countries, such as Iran, with whom the Syrians enjoy good relations.
Additionally, the deal gives Russia renewed entry into the Middle East after being sidelined for many years.
And third, this could be Putin's way of getting back at the United States and the European Union for their support of Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-Western candidate in last December's Ukraine elections.
Yushchenko - who, much to the detriment of the Russians, might take the former a Soviet republic into the EU and even into NATO -- was unequivocally supported by the West during Ukraine's "Orange Revolution." Russia not only lost its preferred candidate in the electoral race, but it also lost face. This is something the Russian president is not likely to forget any time soon. Re-entering the Middle East arena in support of Syria might appear to Putin as an easy way of getting back at the West.
As for Syria, its reasons for wanting to renew its weapons systems are actually quite simple. Syrian armed forces are entirely equipped with antiquated Soviet weaponry, much of which has been in disrepair since the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the demise of the Soviet Union. And since the end of the Cold War, Syria, previously a Soviet client, has been left out in the cold, unable to find an arms provider capable of re-supplying it on the same level as Moscow used to; and just as important, to do so on credit.
Damascus' outdated arsenal and much of its missile technology has most likely outlived its use-by date. Much of Syria's more sophisticated weaponry, such as its anti-aircraft missiles and surface-to surface missiles are falling apart at the seams, literally.
Syria, which considers itself still in a state of war with Israel, feels very vulnerable, and now all the more so since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Not that there was ever any love lost between the rival Baath parties in Baghdad and Damascus, but still, with the most powerful Arab army, Iraq was always willing to jump into a fight where Israel was concerned. This provided Syria somewhat of a security blanket when it came to making war with Israel.
The U.S. invasion of neighboring Iraq was meant to uncover Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction and expose his supposed links to international terrorism. As both accusation turned up to be without foundation, the Syrians feel that similar excuses could as easily be used to attack them. Continuing accusations that Syria supports the anti-American insurgency in Iraq and plays host to terrorist groups in Damascus is doing nothing to alleviate Syrian fears.
The dread of a U.S. military intervention might partially explain Assad's move to upgrade his military hardware. Another Syrian worry is that reinstated in the Oval Office for another four-year term President George W. Bush and the neo-conservatives are going to continue their push to "democratize" the Middle East. Much as Iran, Syria is one of the countries where the administration would like to see regime change. Such talk is keeping the Syrians edgy.
Finally, a more realistic assessment is that Syria might not be arming to defend itself against Israel or the United States. Syria would have difficulty deterring the brunt of a full-scale U.S. invasion -- should it ever occur. And Israel, already bogged down in the Palestinian territories is hardly about to initiate another Arab-Israeli war. Rather this Syrian rearming may be in preparation of what may come from Iraq after the Jan. 30 elections. A Shiite-ruled, Islamist leaning Iraq may be as worrisome to the Syrian Baath as the prospect of a U.S. invasion.
(Comments may be sent to Claude@upi.com.)