1-2 years: firm recovery, or economic apocolypse?

[tombldr]

Just a highly unscientific opinion poll. Notice I've put the time frame solidly into the next presidential term, as I believe the economic factors in play are larger and deeper than who's at the presidential helm.

The following very short article sparked my impulse to post this query. The source is sketchy (anonymous??) but I largely agree with the sentiment-- with the possible exception of the "tanking housing" part which I haven't seen thus far. Guessing the author may be speculating about future home values, currently propped up by low interest rates in the view of many, after rates officially turn the corner and start rising again. This is imminent given current inflation pressure. Oil at $41.xx/barrel rippling through the price of all goods and services in our oil-based economy represents another stiff wind on our economic house of cards. The prospect of the big summertime staged "ter'st attack" which CheneyCo is currently fertilizing the sheeple's minds with would likely be a stake in the economy's heart, with consumer spending droping off a cliff as it did after 911 as sheeple cocoon in their homes tuned diligently to FAUX News for guidance on how to think and feel.

-----------
Inflation Is Already Withering The US Economy

By Anonymous
5-25-4

You know just as well as I. the federal government is bk...that's bankrupt. Further, there is no wiggle room for personal debt, and with each slightest increase in interest rates, it snowballs. This, of course, is on top of tanking housing...and on top of that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Citibank, JP Morgan - all of which have multi-trillion derivative bets on low rates.

So, it's an absolutely no-win doom-laden economic situation: raise rates and the economy collapses; keep rates low and it becomes more apparent with time (even with the never-ending diddling of economic numbers) that inflation is running at 10%, or more. Look at gas, milk, medical costs. And they tell America inflation is not a problem!

Adam Hamilton wrote at the beginning of the year in the early 1980's when real rates were negative 5+% (short rate - inflation) gold was 800+. Now, real rates are twice that to the negative--and the debt picture now towers over what was then.

There is NO way out. I can't see it coming out any other way than a depression. The question is, will it solely be a depression, or one with the added dimension of civil disorder...

----------

Related articles:
There Goes the Neighborhood: Why home prices are about to plummet--and take the recovery with them

Inflation Predicted to Jump 2.5 Percent (read: Greenspan can't reasonably keep his finger in the levee propping up the economy much longer, certainly not through Nov)

'A Terrible Foreboding'

Shell forced to make fourth downgrade (of estimated oil reserves)

There's No Stopping The Offshore-Outsourcing Train

Using the Consumer Price Index to Rob Americans Blind

registered chimpsters can read reaction to the same thread here.

[Moses]

We've got a booming economy here in Washington, and the tax-payers and political money are funding it. This is what I don't understand. This can't work. Not to mention, it is a Big Brother, Killing Machine economy that is booming. Lots of work in the defense industry and in the database/big brother industries. All funded by the US taxpayer. What kind of economy is that?

[karpomrx]

1959 was the first year in which the "service" sector of the economy was larger in the U.S. economy than real goods and agricultural production.
The mythology of most economics ignores the real basis of wealth -real "stuff", material goods are the backbone of whatever engine is generating wealth. The service economy is a kind of reflection of the "invisible hand" that moves wealth about in a manner which is supposed to raise all boats.
Agriculture is the real power of the U.S. economy, the food produced and exported is a lever of tremendous force,to use hunger as a political tool is not new, however this aspect of economic clout is seldom touched upon in the designs of most reformers.
The debt load is the true indicator of the failure of our consumer economy.I have no doubt that the elites are well insulated from the disaster which is looming nigh, as shelter and food are but incidental expenses in their budgets.
The national government has simply opted out of trying to pretend that we can have guns AND butter. They go for the guns.

[stonefruit]

i vote crash. start gardening, and get water and electricity off grid.

[calabi-yau]

I agree with both Karpomrx and Stonefruit. A world economic crash is in the works and probably sooner than later as this would reinforce the fascists hold on power by helping them exercise "Patriotic Actions" on a population out-of-control.

I have a friend who has been living off in the woods for the past 5 years. His cabin is off an old deserted log trail and not connected to any municipal services (solar panels, generators, propane gaz, slow convection wood burner, water by gravity, garden). It is paradise on earth.
When I visit, we sometimes kid about the perfect spot to build myself a little hideaway if worse came about. I'm not laughing as much these days.

[bigidea]

I vote no crash. Technology and innovation have given us an unprecidented ability to build more and more layers onto the pyramid. As long as we keep building new dimensions to the scheme will get along "fine" economically. The environment, world events, man made disease, etc all have a greater chance of derailing mankind than a global crash. The economy is in a wierd dimension where the old reality collapses but we are running just ahead of it into the reality we create. Grant it the reality we are creating now isn't very desirable and if we trip of course the collapsing reality can catch up. I guess that's what many of you are guessing at. We can't keep out running the old realities at this pace without tripping up. We'll see but we are all getting in better shape and faster as we flee. ;D

[tombldr]

I heard most of Robert Chapman's visit with George Noory on Coast to Coast AM last week. He is editor of www.theinternationalforecaster.com

A recap from the C to C website:

Recap
Financial Forecasts
Editor and publisher of International Forecaster, Robert Chapman, shared his bleak financial predictions. The global elite, pushing for a "one world government" are "deliberately destroying the American economy," he said, and he believes they are accelerating their timetable because more people are becoming aware of their agenda.

Chapman foresees the real estate market taking a severe downturn, with housing on the average being worth 35% less than its current value. While the Dow may be manipulated into rising to 13,000 t0 14,000 before the election (to help the incumbent), within a year it will drop down to around 7,000 and could eventually sink as low as 3,000, he said. The time frame for this severe depression is around 2006-2007, he noted.

He advised people to get rid of debt, and to get out of the stock market before the election. Safe investments he mentioned were in Euro-based treasury paper and gold and silver.

Here's a bunch of excerpts from past issues of International Forecaster:
www.pgtigercat.com/Bastille/ChapmanReport.htm

[tombldr]

Is The Fed Expecting
Catastrophe?
From Robt McHugh's Monetary forecast of 5-30-4
and Richard Russell today
6-2-4


"Let me just say from the outset that the Federal Reserve has confirmed our Stock Market Crash forecast by raising the Money Supply (M-3) by crisis proportions, up another 46.8 billion this past week. What awful calamity do they see? Something is up. This is unprecedented, unheard-of pre-catastrophe M-3 expansion. M-3 is up an amount that we've never seen before without a crisis - $155 billion over the past 4 weeks, a $2.0 trillion annualized pace, a 22.2 percent annualized rate of growth!!! There must be a crisis of historic proportions coming, and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is making sure that there is enough liquidity in place to protect our nation's fragile financial system. The amazing thing is, the Fed's actions mean they know what is about to happen. They are aware of a terrible, horrific imminent event. What could it be?"

"One can draw no other conclusion except that the Fed is acting irresponsibly in its managing the money supply, in fulfilling its duty to "maintain a stable currency." I reject the notion that the Fed is acting irresponsibly. No, something is up, bigger than we have ever seen in the history of the United States. Let me ramble. Perhaps they simply see the ominous technical landscape we have been warning about in recent issues, and are attempting to pull out all the stops to avert the predicted crash. The recent rally in just about everything is similar to 2003's market behavior when the Fed pumped massive amounts of liquidity into the system during the first half of the year. This time seems different. The amount of liquidity is too large. The Fed is deflating the value of the monetary base by a fifth! Why are they willing to do this? Wisdom says something bad is up - big time."

[tombldr]

I noticed at Robert Chapman's site, internationalforecaster.com, that you could get a free copy of the newsletter. So I emailed requesting it. He sent back a form-email which said since his visit with Noory on Coast to Coast last week, he'd had 8000 email requests for various info, so the reply email gave a potporri of diverse recommendations, as well as a copy of the latest newsletter. I'm still reading the 33-page Word doc newsletter, but here's the text of the email:

Attached is our latest issue of the IF, we hope you subscribe so that
you
can stay abreast of what is happening.

We are including a variety of information in this email, as we have
received
over 8,000 emails and need to put all the info in one email, so if you
are
not interested in either Mexico, coins or the IF, please excuse as we
are
trying to get the info out as soon as possible. If you are receiving
any
duplicates we are also sorry.

The following is what we are recommending re avoiding the draft or just
relocation.
Also attached is our latest issue of the IF.

You cannot send children to Canada because they have made a deal with
the US
government. I expect Australia and New Zealand will do the same.
Argentina
and Brazil are good, but very far away.

We believe the best place to go to is the Guadalajara-Lake Chapala area
of
west central Mexico. Each child will need $1,500 to $2,000 a month and
a
car at least for 1 1/2 years as they learn Spanish at the University.
It is at 6,000 feet and has the best weather in the world. It is like
eternal spring. There are 50,000 Americans and Canadians in the area.
It is
inexpensive by US standards, medical and dental care is cheap and
excellent
and there is very little crime. Lake Chapala is the largest lake in
Mexico.
I'm enclosing a number of web sites and sites within those sites to
look at.
If you would like to visit let me know.

You can get a Mexican passport in 5 years, no sooner unless the law is
changed.

Information access ­ Mexico sites, etc. To access cut and paste these
sites
into your browser.

Adolfo Duran¹s sites at: www.rtkenterprise.com/reboutique
Email: [e-mail]
Email: Personal: [e-mail]
Business: adolfoduran@ajijic-chapala.

www.Rtkenterprise.com/edirectory
www.lakeside.com/mx/remax
www.lakeside.com.mx

For Legal and Immigration Services contact Kevin Pauline, he is a
Canadian
married to a Mexican lady ­ an attorney. Call Kevin at:
011-52-376-766-4777.
He knows what to do.
www.ajijiclaw.com

This will give you the latest information; Adolfo Duran and Kevin
Pauline
are friends.

---


For coins, including numismatic coins, call Tom Andrew at Midas
877-996-4327
email: [e-mail]


For a gold and silver specialist, call Gil Nyerges, Morgan Stanley,
800-488-1240 ext. 384 or 626 449 1240 ­ home# 626 256 4661, email:
[e-mail]

I recommend Agnico Eagle (AEM-NYSE), Goldcorp (GG-NYSE) Crystallex
(KRY-ASE)
and Clifton Mining (CFTN-OTC).


Bob Chapman,
International Forecaster

[tombldr]

I recall during Robert Chapman's visit with George Noory/Coast to Coast AM last week, the subject of this book: The Creature from Jekyll Island : A Second Look at the Federal Reserve was raised by a caller, with Chapman and the caller giving it glowing reviews. Pretty good Amazon reviews. Here's Chapman's blurb in recommending it:

Have I got a book for you! You think you know all about money? Well, so did I – until I started reading The Creature from Jekyll Island; A Second Look at the Federal Reserve, by G. Edward Griffin. Sure, I had a good working knowledge of how our banking system functions and how money is created out of nothing to make loans, but I was blown away by the magnitude of the scam as it has evolved over the years. What a wild ride through history this is as the author reveals where money comes from, where it goes, and who makes it. The money magicians' secrets are unveiled, and you will get a close look at their mirrors and smoke machines, their pulleys, cogs, and wheels that create the grand illusion called money. A dry and boring subject? Just wait! You'll be hooked in five minutes. Reads like a detective story — which it really is. But it's all true: the cause of wars, boom-bust cycles, inflation, depression, prosperity. Your worldview will definitely change.

So I decided to order it, but not getting it til next week, and being a fairly slow reader, I don't expect to have any review of it for awhile. But it sure looks like good fodder for anyone interested in this topic, and the amazon reviews should help you evaluate whether to pick it up.

I'm also in the market for a good book on the various gold investing strategies-- as I'm convinced that gold will be happening in the months and years ahead.

[tombldr]

Here's audio of Robert Chapman's (theinternationalforecaster.com) visit with Coast to Coast AM a few weeks ago. Mercifully, the commercials have been stripped out, :-)

Hour One:
arc1.m2ktalk.com/CoasttoCoast-May262004-Hour2.mp3
Hour Two:
arc1.m2ktalk.com/CoasttoCoast-May262004-Hour3.mp3
Hour Three:
arc1.m2ktalk.com/CoasttoCoast-May262004-Hour4.mp3