Post by Moses on Dec 25, 2005 17:23:28 GMT -5
A who's who of who puts fear in politicos' hearts
By Times Staff Writer
Published December 25, 2005
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Which Republican candidate for governor would Democrats prefer to take on in November, Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher? And would Republicans rather face U.S. Rep. Jim Davis or state Sen. Rod Smith in the gubernatorial general election?
"Rod Smith would be harder to handle than Jim Davis," former Republican Gov. Bob Martinez says in a taped TV interview airing today on Bay News 9.
"(Smith) was a prosecutor. He prosecuted Danny Rolling. He's against gun control. He's got some of those Republican symbols from the old Southern Democrat," said Martinez, noting that Smith could chip away at Republican strongholds in north Florida. "I don't think Davis can touch that area against Republicans."
Martinez and former Tampa City Council member Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat, serve as political analysts for Bay News 9. They appear on today's Political Connections show, a joint venture with the St. Petersburg Times. It airs at 11 a.m., and starting Monday can be seen on Channel 340 (Tampa Bay on Demand).
Buckhorn said that Attorney General Crist looks stronger against Democrats than does Chief Financial Officer Gallagher. In the primary, Gallagher is moving to the right on many issues such as advocating making all abortions illegal, and Buckhorn said that could hurt him in the general election.
Crist, in contrast, is "a very, very appealing general election candidate. . . . He's immensely likable and I think could cross over and appeal to a lot of Democrats." PRIVATE POLLING: One should be wary when a campaign touts its private polling, because the motivation is always self-serving. The Charlie Crist campaign proved that point this week when it leaked new poll numbers to the online version of Buzz (www.sptimes.com/blogs/buzz) and then immediately cited the St. Petersburg Times' mention of Crist's poll in a fundraising pitch.
Still, the pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, is well respected, and the Dec. 14-18 survey of 800 likely Republican voters had some interesting numbers:
Nine out of 10 Florida Republicans see rising homeowners' insurance rates as a serious problem. But they pin most of the blame on the storms themselves and the insurance industry - not on any politician. That has to be reassuring to Tom Gallagher, the chief financial officer and candidate for governor who has long been identified with insurance.
But Gallagher won't like the biggest numbers in this poll: Republicans prefer Crist by a 2-1 margin, 38 percent to 19 percent, with 43 percent undecided. Other recent polls have shown a much closer race between Crist and Gallagher.
This poll (margin of error: 3.4 percentage points) was conducted for a major business client of lobbyist J.M. "Mac" Stipanovich, a Crist supporter.
Other nuggets from the poll: Bill McCollum blows away the field in the GOP primary for attorney general, and Rep. Katherine Harris scorches Rep. Mark Foley, 44 percent to 23 percent, in a hypothetical Senate matchup. (Harris is in the Senate race; Foley isn't.)
Finally, the poll suggests that GOP voters are more concerned with economic and social issues (defined as health care, education and environment) than moral issues (defined as the right to life, school prayer and declining values). Gallagher has sought to define himself as the "values" candidate in this race by highlighting his support for a gay marriage ban in the state Constitution and state and federal intervention in the Terri Schiavo case.
RAHM'S AFFECTION: Prominently featured on the campaign Web site of Greg Rublee, a Democrat running to succeed Mike Bilirakis in Congress, are kind words from Rahm Emanuel, an Illinois representative and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee:
"As a dedicated public servant with an impressive national security background, Greg is a strong Democratic candidate for Congress. His commitment to serving his community and preserving our moral values will mean a tremendous challenge to Republicans running in Florida's 9th Congressional District."
So Emanuel's backing Rublee? Not exactly. The nice words about Rublee notwithstanding, Emanuel has been helping Democratic former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky raise money for that congressional race. He has hosted two fundraisers for Busansky and helped her raise about $100,000 in just over a month.
Rublee acknowledged he was taken aback by the committee's recruitment of Busansky.
"I was moving forward and doing everything they asked of me, and they went ahead and did this without ever saying a word to me," said Rublee, a former Defense Department manager and congressional liaison.
Busansky's entry in the race has hurt his fundraising, he said, but he said he sees Busansky as too liberal to win.
"I consider her an opportunist," said Rublee, who also faces Tampa attorney Bill Mitchell in the Democratic primary. Republicans running include state Rep. Gus Bilirakis and chiropractor David Langheier.
Adam C. Smith and Steve Bousquet contributed to this week's Buzz. For more political news check out www.sptimes.com/blogs/buzz
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