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Post by Moses on Jun 8, 2005 12:13:05 GMT -5
You keep reading about how the economy is bouncing back even if it isn't. You hear about how jobs are up when, in any meaningful category, jobs are down. Last night, in a conversation with a real estate mogul, I heard predictions of econo-downturn that sounded like something that one expects of the left of the left.
Now, along comes Mr. Alan Greenspan, Mr. Economy Expert of All Experts, seer and business poobah and all that, and what says he?
"Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman, on Monday night highlighted the unusual behaviour of global bond markets, and acknowledged that investors might be correctly signalling a period of economic weakness ahead.
"Mr. Greenspan, in remarks prepared for delivery via satellite to a conference in China, pointed to the 'unusual behaviour' of market-determined long-term interest rates.
"'The economic and financial world is changing in ways that we still do not fully comprehend,' Mr. Greenspan said."
--- dissector@mediachannel.org
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Post by camaxtle on Jun 29, 2005 20:51:24 GMT -5
I have a question for all of you economists out there. I don't know a lot about economics but have learned a lot since getting married and having three kids. But I've noticed for the past year or so, maybe it's longer but that it seems after every quarterly report, they report one thing on the GDP, and then later in the next quarter they go back and revise it up, always saying that they were too conservative and that earnings in such and such a quarter needs to be revised up. Has this always happened and I just wasn't aware of, or is this some orwellian deal that is just with this administration? I'm sorry I don't have any material to reference, but I saw it today June 29th,on Cnn, it was on the international cnn because i'm currently staying in Mexico, once again the fed was revising the earning from the first quarter, and once again saying that earnings were found to be greater than originally thought' I would appreciate any feedback on this and your thoughts. Am I just too conspiratorial, looking for conspiracies everywhere, or have others been noticing this as well?
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Post by Moses on Jun 29, 2005 22:11:21 GMT -5
I don't know-- the economics is such bull sh*t, anyway! I hope that someone who understands the data can explain these revisions.
I do know, because the workers live here, that the Bush Admin was demanding that figures be scrubbed in the Commerce Department, at least before the election.
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Post by camaxtle on Dec 3, 2005 22:00:54 GMT -5
Hey Moses, so the economy is back on track and Bush says it just goes to show that his tax cuts are working. Do you know of any websites that I can use to get a clearer picture of the economy and not just depend on the Fed saying everything is coming up roses, because employment went up. I just don't trust anything I hear coming from this government. Can you offer any help?
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Post by Moses on Dec 4, 2005 8:15:08 GMT -5
I have kept my eyes and ears peeled for real economic info but haven't heard/seen any.
In terms of the 'Housing bubble" -- it doesn't seem to be bursting but the air is just slowly seeping out, from what I can tell, though I happen to have access to a former housing executive who says that the price of homes are so far beyond the median income/most incomes, that housing stock will have to hit a wall-- people just aren't making the kind of money that is necessary to afford homes any more.
The jobs data I haven't looked at but jobs are always added seasonally-- low paying jobs without benefits.
Its odd there is no real commentary about this.
It could be that people are talking up the economy to keep consumer confidence up (the real story being bleak) and no one wants to say anything because they don't want to hurt the retailers.
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Post by karpomrx on Dec 4, 2005 20:31:10 GMT -5
english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0514339A-C375-41A6-BA86-9B77B3725EF6.html The Sage of the Fed is worried about the debt load having a bad effect upon the global economy- if only we would curtail our "protectionism", the rate of savings among the citizens would rise, bringing about a stable economic future. I don't know which planet this genius is living on, my rate of personal savings is hard pressed to stay in the black. I have a neighbor who has taken out a second mortgage in order to finance his holiday orgy of consumerism. I decline such patriotic acts to pump up the economy , myself. So quit bad-mouthing NAFTA et.al. We must join the free trade of the open market place, then all ships will rise upon the waves of plenty. What a load of mule-muffins!
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Post by camaxtle on Dec 5, 2005 23:32:52 GMT -5
I just don't get it. I listen to the reports of job growth and an expanding economy, but I don't see it and things are starting to get tight. This winter with higher heating costs is going to hit hard, especially if its a hard winter, and it looks like it's gearing up to be. I see the stock market and the specialists talk about it hitting 11000, and I'm wondering, what does it matter? I mean would the stock market still continue to move upward if everyone else is penny pinching? I just don't know. I'm afraid that if things go bad, it won't happen gradually, but rather suddenly. Like the 1920's everything is great roaring along, and then WHAM! sucker punch. Who knows, by then it may not matter anyway.
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Post by karpomrx on Dec 6, 2005 0:48:49 GMT -5
The drift I get is this: capital investment is sluggish, after all , who wants to pay high wages and risk a possible loss in manufacturing here in the good ol' USA? Through the manipulation of credit and a hidden devaluation of the dollar, the NUMBERS are on the increase, real value is being hidden by the weight of the consumer credit system. More and more part time and low income service jobs are being foisted upon the workers, giving the appearance of an increase in jobs. More and more wealth is being concentrated in the hands of a small group at the top, while the proles are left to struggle for a smaller piece of the pie. So, in terms of numbers, without regard to capital value or real production, the economy is "growing", in reality, the "misery index" is the economic measure to start with when trying to make sense out of this phony system of "market capitalism".
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Post by Moses on Dec 6, 2005 11:09:58 GMT -5
I read an article that there is now a complete disconnect between the stock market and the economic well-being of Americans.
An executive I consulted said he agrees there is likely to be a bad depression-- and it is coming.
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Post by RPankn on Dec 6, 2005 19:31:04 GMT -5
Bush: 'Best days are yet to come'By David Jackson and Sue Kirchoff, USA TODAY Tue Dec 6, 7:47 AM ET President Bush flew to rainy North Carolina on Monday to make a campaign-style sales pitch: The economy is better than you think it is. "This economy is strong, and the best days are yet to come," Bush told employees at a construction machinery plant near Greensboro. Blasting "pessimists" who had attacked his tax cuts, Bush credited those cuts with triggering high growth rates and rising employment. He again urged Congress to make the tax cuts permanent, saying the economy grows "when people are allowed to keep more of their own money." Reiterating his overall economic agenda, Bush made extensive comments on pensions, saying too many companies are not putting away enough money to protect their workers' retirement. "My message to corporate America is: You need to fulfill your promises," said Bush, who also urged Congress to tighten pension rules. Despite positive economic numbers, polls show that many Americans believe the economy remains weak and some blame Bush. In a Gallup Poll taken Nov. 17-20, 63% said the economy was fair or poor, while 37% called it good or excellent. Karlyn Bowman, who analyzes polls for the business-oriented American Enterprise Institute, said the negative attitudes have less to do with the economy than another issue: Iraq. "Iraq is casting a pall over everything, significantly," Bowman said. "People are in a sour mood, and it's washing over all the issues." Bush has good reason to tout a robust economy, some economists say. Growth has been stronger than forecast - a 4.3% pace in the third quarter - despite hurricanes, surging energy prices and a dozen Federal Reserve interest rate increases since mid-2004. Unemployment is a low 5%, and inflation remains relatively muted. "The U.S. economy looks good, I might even say terrific," says Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, who has advised the White House on fiscal policy in the past. Even so, there are trends that have been worrisome to consumers. Drivers have struggled this year with sharply higher gasoline prices. The administration has projected that home heating costs will surge this winter. And data show that workers' income is lagging behind rising costs. Democrats such as Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said the Bush tax cuts created huge budget deficits and benefited only special interests. "I hope that he'll set aside his narrow agenda and address the challenges facing all Americans today," Reid said. Bush called tax cuts part of "pro-growth" policies that also include proposals for federal spending cuts, new domestic sources of energy, more job training and expansion of free trade. Stuart Rothenberg, a non-partisan political analyst, said Bush probably needs better news from Iraq before voters give him good marks for the economy. "They're not willing to give George Bush credit for anything, even a strong economy," Rothenberg said. Kirchoff reported from Washington. news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20051206/ts_usatoday/bushbestdaysareyettocome
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Post by karpomrx on Dec 6, 2005 21:21:49 GMT -5
I know that those depending upon the retirement plans they were promised will all breathe a sigh of relief- the Great Man has spoken.
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Post by Moses on Dec 9, 2005 5:27:53 GMT -5
And Allen Sinai and Stuart Rothenberg both say that the hard times are only an illusion-- things have never been better.
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Post by Moses on Dec 9, 2005 5:40:37 GMT -5
Business Week: DECEMBER 6, 2005 COMMENTARY By Michael Mandel Americans, Working Longer for Less U.S. productivity is soaring while real wages decline. It's a toxic relationship that, thanks to globalism, just might become the norm When I look at the latest gains in U.S. productivity, I feel like I'm watching an athlete stretch himself to the limit. According to the Dec. 6 report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm business productivity rose at a 4.7% pace in the third quarter, the fastest quarterly gain since 2003. On one level, that's a fantastic number, showing that U.S. businesses continue to outstrip European and Japanese counterparts on the productivity front (see BW Online, 10/11/05, "Winners and Losers"). Yet very little of the efficiency gains is being directly passed on to workers. Since the end of 2003, average real wages have fallen by 3.2%, while productivity is up by 5.1% (see BW Online, 11/3/05, "Long Productivity"). Even managers -- supposedly the best-off sector of the workforce -- have seen a 4% decline in real wages since the end of 2003, despite the fact that the unemployment rate for managers is a meager 2.2%. What's worse, Americans are working harder and harder, even as they're getting paid less and less (see BW, 10/3/05, "The Real Reasons You're Working So Hard... "). The November employment report, released Dec. 2, showed that 18.3% of the workforce puts in 49 hours or more per week. That's up from 17.8% a year ago. LABOR SHORTAGES. This combination of insane work hours with falling pay can't go on, at least not without imposing damaging stresses on Americans. So far, the rising housing market has helped to soften the blow, since homeowners have been able to count their capital appreciation in their few spare moments. But as the housing market cools, that source of solace will fade away. So what will happen next? One possibility is that the labor market will tighten a bit more, driving overall unemployment down below 5%, where it has been stuck for months. Certainly some areas of the country are starting to report labor shortages, which could cause real wages to move back up again. For example, the unemployment rate in the Los Angeles area is down to only 4.3% -- below where it was for most of the 1990s boom -- and wage increases seem to be picking up. That metropolitan area could turn out to be the forerunner for the rest of the country. GLOBALISM'S TOLL? The other possibility is that this really is the age of capital, not labor. With so many new Chinese and Indian workers entering the global labor market, wages in the U.S. could continue to be beaten down. In that case, the benefits of higher productivity will mainly flow to investors, rather than workers, for the foreseeable future, as U.S. pay starts its long, slow convergence down to the global norm. I can't decide yet which alternative I find more likely. My native optimism says that the fall in pay is only cyclical and will soon be reversed. But my realistic side is beginning to wonder whether this is the time when the toll of globalism finally comes due for the U.S. READER COMMENTS (see link) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mandel is chief economist for BusinessWeek in New York Edited by Beth Belton Advertising | Special Sections | MarketPlace | Knowledge Centers Terms of Use | Privacy Notice | Ethics Code | Contact Us Copyright 2000- 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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Post by Moses on Dec 9, 2005 5:47:17 GMT -5
US initial jobless claims rise by 6,000Friday, December 09, 2005 4:46:20 AM ET newratings.com NEW YORK, December 9 (newratings.com) – The US government Thursday reported an unexpected rise in workers filing new jobless claims last week by 6,000. Initial claims for state unemployment totaled a seasonally adjusted 327,000 for the week ended December 3, as compared to the revised figure of 321,000 for the week ended November 26, according to the US Labor Department. The number of first time jobless claims was ahead of the average forecast of the Wall Street analysts of 317,000 for last week. The moving average of initial claims, which is widely considered a better indicator of the underlying labor market conditions, was 322,500 for last week, down 250 from the previous week's revised average of 322,750. Noting that it was normal for claims to rise in the week following the Thanksgiving week, a Labor Department analyst said that about 7,000 of the new claims last week were related to hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
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Post by camaxtle on Jan 6, 2006 14:05:33 GMT -5
Here it is again. A while back I mentioned that they keep revising original estimates upwards. They did it again today.
U.S. payrolls expanded by 108,000 jobs during December, about half of expectations. But hiring in November was revised sharply upward, to 305,000 new jobs instead of the earlier reported 215,000. And the unemployment rate declined last month to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent in November.
There it is again, just to make everything look rosy. This is straight out of 1984. It's orwelllian. Then they went and put those two numbers together, the 108,000 and the 305,000 to say that for the two months of November and December we didn't do too badly.
I've got to stop watching the news. I'm going crazy.
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